VIX testing the lower Fibonacci retrace level of $24.78/24.80 again, in another test of whether and when it reverses

The VIX well under $24.78/$24.80 does not look good for the bear case, of course. The only thing I can say about it for the bearish case is, that if it reverses after plumbing under the actual Fibonacci level of $24.78/24.80 that I've mentioned before (and you can see the relic annotation on my daily chart, at right), then it can still be a valid reversal. I would give it only one opportunity to dig below that Fib. level (even if it wants to spend one entire day under that level), and then look for a reversal.

If it doesn't reverse from such a digging under the level, or if it continues to resonate around it as the VIX did around the 33.81 level before, then that will be a clue that the $24.78/24.80 level may give way just as the 33.81 level did.

Today's action won't be enough, of course, to tell us which it will be. So for swing traders, we still need to observe how the VIX acts from here (coupled with the SPX levels I discussed in my previous post here this morning).

Notice that the VIX movement down is also, once again, testing the lower channel trendline, and the lower Bollinger Band. Once again giving reasons for at least a reflex upward, as it did when it touched 24.80 before ... again reasons for us to avoid being complacent about whether another reflex upward will turn into something more.

Below is how my VIX weekly, longer-term chart is looking right now. It's interesting to see that the VIX at this level is not only poking under the way I mark the uptrend line, but is also testing the area around $24 that's an apex of what I marked as a triangle during the mid-2008 time frame, on this weekly chart: