Wednesday, August 26, 2009

And now US Treasuries prices are supposed to drop again - right?!

unlike the corporate bonds represented by LQD (which I've commented on from time to time including yesterday here), US Treasuries have floundered in consolidation since meeting our symmetry targets. Some are now describing this as a triangle, and saying we should go long or short depending how it breaks out from this. I'm not convinced it's a classic or true Elliott Wave triangle, but without debating that, it's a pretty useful construct if you think flexibly in term of following it up OR down. As I read the indicators on the TLT and $TNX charts below, it's definitely possible that Treasuries will wind up moving higher, even if it's just a continued bear-rally that only makes a higher retracement back to the late 2008 highs.

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