Wednesday, August 26, 2009

S&P 500 continued consolidation before trying for another straw on the camel's back

Equities moved well (and promptly) as indicated by today's ChartsEdge map (thanks again, Mike and ChartsEdge!). And a nice little bonus that the low was at 1022, the high at 1032 - looking like that "string" of numbers like that, still "works"! We'll see if that can lead the SPX to 1042 to really ring the bell on Tony Caldaro's 1041 pivot, and I believe Andre Gratian has projection numbers in that neighborhood; if the strength can manage it. I'm leaning to the view that this consolidation paves the way for a small-level fifth-wave move up. Assuming that's right, there could be a good move up even overnight and tomorrow (which the ChartsEdge weekly forecast suggested too). But it's also possible for another dig to start from lower tomorrow morning, and then have the fifth-wave movement zigzagging up. It's also possible to see a fifth-wave move up become rather choppy.

The other reason to be very, very cautious is what's at stake. This move up is most likely topping out the whole bear-market rally from the March lows. It can extend to reach much higher, or it can theoretically be finished already. I kinda think we'll get a fifth-wave push higher. But no guarantees - so it's getting rather more exciting, really! For what it's worth, today the QQQQ's poked under yesterday's low. Yesterday being the first day the QQQQ's spent the whole day above their 50% retrace level of 39.82. We'll see if this becomes more significant, because it can be a clue that this retrace level can still affect the market.

Under the hourly SPX chart below, I've added my monthly chart of the Transports ($TRAN), mainly because I like to keep an eye on the big picture including its Fibonacci levels. It certainly does look like a large zigzag - including, that it can be topping out the B of a large ABC zigzag. It's a very sobering scenario, if that's the way it plays.

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