Can the yen recover from this deep retrace? Recent swings set these pivot levels

The yen has continued wide swings and notice they've recently tested key Fibonacci levels, above and more recently just below. The price in $XJY (for which the ETF is FXY) could go lower and remain in the parallel channel, but that would undercut the 200-day moving average and undermine the more bullish Elliott Wave count. Of course, falling under the lower channel line would help confirm a downtrend! Can it recover from this deep retrace? While it remains theoretically possible, the indicators look very weak. It certainly didn't hold the recent breakout, so there may be many ready to bail out if it edges lower again.

I used puts to hedge after it wobbled from the apparent breakout and determbed that was the .618 retrace, as I posted here and as shown again here on my daily chart. The drop since then is a comparable retrace. So if the yen wants to turn bullish again, this is the time for it to turn and do that! (With a stop either at this most recent low, or at the lower channel line.). If it just moves lower I'll probably ramp up into more of a short position - definitely, under that channel line.

If it makes this most recent low support, then it's obviously got to get back to 108, then I'll look for 111.50 and higher, probably to new highs ... will see!