VIX holding for now as the dollar and equities tread gingerly around potential reversal Fibonacci pivots today

So far today, the newest trendline I marked on my VIX chart is "holding", so it along with the long-term Fibonacci 24/24.78 level may prove to be support for the volatility index. Meanwhile, the dollar is weak intraday but has not (yet) moved to a new low. The dollar index Fibonacci level we're watching is 77.92. Now that the dollar moved decisively to that, it's just a matter of whether or not the dollar can use it as a pivot, regain above it and make that support ... or not. (Readers already know that our number below that is 73.58 but we'll first have to see if 77.92 will "do it".)

The fact that the dollar has been toying underneath that exact level is not a problem, because the Fibonacci pattern set up is that price can give a robust test by overshooting the Fibonacci number, and then reverse back across it again. It's only if an overshoot happens, followed by a reversal back across, followed by another overshoot that it begins to look like the Fibonacci pivot doesn't hold.

The QQQQ level of $39.82 is an example. Price has resonated above that exact level, but now intraday it's back under again. If the QQQQ's are tracing out a reversal pattern that sends the QQQQ's back down under it from the daily chart perspective, that's information to treat them from a skeptical or defensive point of view, unless and until they can demonstrate otherwise.

For the S&P 500, that index certainly went past 962 and if you were watching the daily charts there never was a daily chart trigger (close under prior day low) since then. As I said, up is up until it isn't, and so the SPX has been looking more like it wanted to test the 1012/1014 area as well. There are some who think that testing the round number level of 1000 could be enough - so we'll see, given the other indications from the VIX, dollar and QQQQ's.