And just how bearish should we be? One Elliott Wave analyst, Glenn Neely, has abandoned the idea of US equities markets dropping to new lows, instead calling for an extended triangular consolidation. But you can hear from some other noted bears - literally! This weekend's audio Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava features quite the lineup! Including Stephen Hochberg of Elliott Wave International, Michael "Mish" Shedlock, and Marc Faber, among others; at http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html. It isn't any great secret that Steve Hochberg of EWI is charting out Bob Prechter's idea of equities getting close to completing an ABC or WXY "wave 2" up. And that when it's finished, look out below! So listen to hear if he gives clues on where he think it'll finish. The topic also focuses quite a bit on the inflation vs. deflation theories too, so you know the debate over gold's path is on the table.
I've addressed gold quite a bit, and don't want to retread those ideas right now other than to remind readers that it's really the dollar dropping rather than gold climbing so much, so be careful if a dollar rebound makes gold less attractive. It probably depends a lot in the surrounding financial market circumstances (for example, if both the dollar and gold look like comparative safe havens, they can both rise). What about equities?
As for wave count, I tend to tilt closer with Tony Caldaro even though I'm not expert in his Objective Elliott Wave methods. (Maybe it's the name il like too! LOL. Seriously, this is why I keep Tony's site and feed at the right side of the page.). Basically with the idea we're closing in on wave "c" of "c" of "b", meaning "it's close to being done". Fibonacci retracement levels add magnetism to cycles and technical projections for equities markets - so here are some of my bigger-picture charts. Many are now targeting 1120 for the SPX based on that being the 50% retracement level back to the 2007 high. While that may be the place to look for the rally to give out, I'm also thinking that 1053 can have been enough based on pattern, plus 1068 area being the monthly chart Bollinger Band midline as classic resistance. Assuming the SPX completed its wave 3 of "c", I'm thinking a wave 4 pullback to retest about 1040, then a zigzag-type wedge up for wave 5 which may or might not make a slight new high, perhaps peaking in early October.
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