Sunday, September 6, 2009

ChartsEdge cycle forecast charts for equities and gold for week of 9/7

ChartsEdge has issued their weekly update of cycle forecast charts for equities and gold. The set for subscribers includes the week ahead (which is also posted free at the ChartsEdge site), month ahead, and three months ahead. Unlike the daily equities "Market Maps" that ChartsEdge also generates, these cycle forecasts are based on the various trading cycles (short-term and longer-term), seasonal cycles, and even yearly/multi-yearly cycles. That's where their neural net approach comes in, to aggregate and combine the cycle wavelengths and frequencies. All that results in the "best estimate" (my words, not ChartsEdge's) cycles-based forecasts they update each week. We aren't supposed to necessarily use them for price levels, but more for timing of cyclic highs and lows.

Gold seems less responsive these days to its cycle forecasts, maybe it's just me - but I get the feeling gold's working to a dance of its own. I am independently aware that gold was considered to have topped a significant cycle, yet it bucked that and acted bullishly last week, and Tony Caldaro has been showing a bullish OEW count for gold for a long time. So how do we interpret this week's forecast? Man, all I can say is, let's be careful with it! I'm happy to play it as a breakout given the indicators, and with a tight stop (personally for this trade, I'll use a move under prior day's low to take me out, since I don't see a reason for that to happen anytime soon if this is really a wave 3 up - others might want a breakeven stop, or might be able to live with one based on 13 or 20 day exponential moving average (EMA)).

Well that's enough of my comments for now - here are the free week-ahead forecasts from ChartsEdge:
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