What could make gold go up when oil's going down? Look at this

Yes it's strange that gold is clearly breaking up and out (though Tony's been favoring the bullish count for a long time), while oil went downtrending (as expected) and the dollar has gone sideways (though may break down - will see). How does it make sense? Raymond Merriman made some suggestions based on his financial astrology preview, stated in his comments Friday evening (see prior post on that, or at his site, link at right). Now a reader has stepped forward to share link to a developing story that may also shed some light on this. This comment came in response to Trader Brian's thoughts about the OIH:

From: Anonymous
Date: September 6, 2009 2:24:25 PM EDT
Subject: New comment on OIH/Oil, and gold, sectors.

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "OIH/Oil, and gold, sectors":
Ariel,
Check this article on some possible shakeout in the OIL markets.
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2009/09/china-and-buzz-of-pending-bank-default_03.html

Posted September 6, 2009 2:24 PM

Brian has then commented back: "Wow that's scary and the gold push makes sense."

The story involves Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOE's), with 3 transportation entities having commodities derivatives probably involving oil, and the possibility of defaulting on the derivatives to the detriment of 3 large US financials - GS (and I believe the other two are MS and JPM).**

Well it is very interesting, and scary! Reminds me too of the story circulating that China is raising limits on how much foreign investors can buy into their markets - Elliott Wave theory says that can be a clue of peak behavior. Focusing just on oil and gold though, below are how my gold and oil charts are looking. Hat's off to Tony Caldaro who's been skeptical of oil even as he's been bullish gold for a long time. It speaks really well for his OEW techniques that he's been seeing these movements in advance, even if it takes some strange fundamentals occurrences to cause an oil/gold divergence to make "sense". However, I should add that Tony is marking oil as having the chance to move up again for another couple waves up to complete the expected B wave. That count would be negated if oil drops to a new lower low (under what he marks as small wave b). (Tony's site and update comments feed are also included at the right side of the page here.)

**One of the commenters to the cited article says that Germany and Hong Kong are recalling gold reserves from Lobdon in order to hold them locally. Another said:
"With regards to contracts, I don't know if any of you caught this Reuters story titled: Morgan Stanley, Moody's, S&P Must Defend Fraud Claims.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5817EK20090902

Essentially, in the case brought by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and King County in Washington state, the lawsuit accused the defendants of marketing a complex instrument, the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle, as a high-quality investment, but masked the risks.

This case may have an impact on these complex instruments and remains one to watch and may have a bearing on financial instrument contracts."