Sunday, September 6, 2009

Volumes and technicals as equities indices stall at Fibonacci resistance confirm defensive mode is warranted

The weekly charts of the S&P 500, QQQQ, and bellwether Goldman Sachs (GS) below, show how volumes that were decreasing with the continued rally increased somewhat on the recent drop. This occurred right after important Fibonacci levels were tested - 1015/1018 in SPX, approximately 40 in QQQQ, and 169 in GS. I already showed in a previous post today the McClellan data for NYSE and Nasdaq, in both of which it's the Summation Index that's more concerning. The Summation Index is a longer-term indicator, and it's rolled over to start pointing down. Sure, it remains theoretically possible that equities can make it higher. But taking the Nasdaq for example, as represented by the QQQQ - not only is there Fibonacci resistance, but also chart price resistance from the 2008 lows. Then there's the sobering message from Elliott Wave analysis: while some call the rally a wave B up, others call it a wave 2 or 4 (some even consider it a bullish wave 1 threatening a deep drop into a wave 2 down) - there's near consensus that Elliott Wave points downward.

We'll want to see what Terry Laundry is saying, as he did a great job of pointing to the good rally, but is having some discussion about his T's including a "mystery T" - check his site, I gave the link in the previous post, and it's always included in the site links at right.

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