When Arms gives right to be bearish; McClellan data look concerning; and other weekend analysis

Time for weekend reading again, and the folks at Schaeffer's aren't all optimistic despite their headline this weekend: Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: SPX 1,000 Is Acting Like a Magnet

Todd Salamone considers the market to be in a range around SPX 1000, saying: "We remain bullish over the intermediate and long term, while continuing to emphasize technology and consumer discretionary stocks. With gold futures nearing $1,000 an ounce for the fifth time since March 2008, it is crunch time once again. While we remain bearish on the yellow metal, we recommend hedging your gold short positions, as a breakout above $1,000 could lead to sharp gains."

However, Rocky White isn't so cheerful, and readers know that I'm not either. And, I've been pointing out gold's triangle that can continue for a bullish breakout (also consistent with Merriman's comments last night). Check out what Rocky's analyzing with the TRIN (Arms Index) - he does a great job digging into the Arms Index, a technical indicator named for its inventor, Richard Arms. Rocky explains:
"The Arms Index Defined: Below, you can see the exact definition of the Arms Index. Basically, this index tells us whether volume is being generated by buyers or by sellers. If volume is high on advancing shares, then it will increase the denominator, resulting in a low reading. That means buyers are driving volume. When sellers are in control of volume, the Arms Index will provide a high reading. This index is often used as a contrarian indicator, with high readings signaling panic selling, and low values revealing that euphoric buying might be taking place."

I've posted a TRIN chart that includes a number of moving averages at my UBTNB3 blogspot just now, so you can see it, but you really should read Rocky's complete analysis and his charts, using the link above. As he states, it isn't bullish.

Terry Laundry HAS NOW posted his T Theory update at his T Theory website. It includes his updated chart and audio comments, which I'm about to listen to [this update comment at 6:21 pm & subject to my family's movie viewing wishes timing!].

Below I'm posting my McClellan Oscillator charts ... So we did get that technical bounce as McClellan Oscillator bounced in that triangular fashion while VIX had hit that weekly trendline, as I showed and commented Wednesday night here and at my UBTNB3 blogspot. We'll see if the MO drops again. Notice the Summation Index - intended to indicate longer-term prospects for these equities markets - has stalled and drooping:

I'll return later and add some additional analysis being done by other analysts we like to keep an eye on in weekend reviews. So check back later for those.

Added: Here are Andy Askey's recent big-picture Gann charts of the Nasdaq Composite, and of gold - read up on what he's saying about these at his PTV-Investing Blog:

Also added: a reader asked about correlating the extended job losses to the S&P 500 index. It's a good question though I'm not set up to do that. What I can do is share this link to an article that really gets into the unemployment data, in-depth (including an explanation of the "birth-death" model): Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Jobs Contract 20th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 9.7% by Mike "Mish" Shedlock.

Tim Wood is the featured technical analyst in the opening hour of Saturday's Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava, the FinancialSense.com weekly financial news/analysis audio broadcast.

Daneric's Elliott Waves - Interesting posts this weekend to review, including the discussion of what "liquidity" really means.