It will be interesting to see what cycles guys say after today's poor action! Now Tony Caldaro with his Objective Elliott Wave is putting out the alternative count that the rally's last 5th wave was completed - as a failed or truncated wave - as you can see in his Dow (INDU) chart below (thanks Tony!). You can see his charts and read his update at his site (in list and feed at right). The SPX failure to hold around 1041-1043 seems to have done it in. Were too many eyes looking for one last hurrah? Perhaps. Daytraders never saw a reversal, and swing traders now must consider the possibility the rally's over. We'll look into it more closely also, of course!
It's true a wave count can never be confirmed except by subsequent action consistent with the count. Today's weakness is a first step toward that but not complete as a scientific fact. Confirming factors are what we'll be looking at this evening and naturally weekend too. One would be a drop under the early September lows but we'll see if we can't get a better bead on it without having to wait for that!
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