Easy to be bearish now - but do these charts say that's right?

Whew, after a day like this it's easy to feel bearish! And also tempting to go into some more detailed anysis and comments, but time has been precious for other reasons this evening (including a very nice chance to catch up with an old school buddy of mine - here's a "shout out" to you, C.!). So I must confine myself to pointing out some big things. One, equities sagged terribly but it's also just the first test in a long time of the 50-day moving average in many indices like the s&p 500 - and it was just a small poke under its 34-day exponential moving average. So, maybe "the top is in" but it's premature to say that, both in technical indicator terms.and in Elliott Wave terms. Also, even if it's toast, there should be a "wave 2 up" bounce at some point, before the next great selling opportunity.

And what about those two great contrary indicators, the dollar and the VIX? The dollar's move up looks very like a retest of that 77.92 Fibonacci level that we'd been tracking and the loss of which had pointed the dollar lower. Recapture and rise over 77.92, and the dollar index looks more robust. Otherwise, this may have been simply a retest.

Certainly the triangle idea from yesterday went out the window, as I pointed out of course in tweets at the time. As fir some other technicals and thoughts - I'm adding some posts soon at my ubtnb3 blog (link and feed at right).

The VIX popped much higher of course, as traders bought more protection. Even it didn't make a new swing high, however. All in all, I can respect the idea that new highs can still be possible. Yes, the cycles indicating more upside late this week seem to be failing. But we remain above the early September lows, and the wave count is not unambiguously bearish. Tony Caldaro similarly pointed out in his OEW update (see site link and feed, at right) that the SPX needs to lose 1018 before getting a bearish stamp. This can even have been the vicious c-wave of an EW flat. So let's be cautious, and not go knee-jerk bearish. That exactly the kind if psychology (with the TRIN popped high) that could feed a short-covering 5th-wave rally if the bull's not done yet.