Wednesday, November 25, 2009

There it is: Gold at long-term $1192 target in (potential) reversal window; chart review

Ka-ching! Gold is ringing the bell on the $1192 that fits with a long-term Fibonacci pattern, and a couple of shorter-term projections too. And with what a nice arc pointing to a fork channel line on my weekly chart (below, under the daily chart (both customized with Stockcharts.com)). And I can tell you it's interesting because today is within a little time window that one of my sources had marked (over a year ago) as a reversal time window. There are other dates marked similarly so it's really because of price here that I'm really perking up. I've also got to say, let it demonstrate if it wants to tag the upper trendline with an overshoot of the price target, and we'll see soon enough if a reversal pattern prints out.

Once we see a reversal, what does it mean? It might be merely an interim top such as a third-wave crest that leads to a consolidation move. Now, I'll admit I'm not ruling out the possibility it'll be a B wave (Elliott Wave flat) top putting gold at risk of a big C wave down. But that's no longer my primary view. So for a pullback, we can consider $1030, $1000, $960/980 - all areas where I see good price support - and I've seen an argument for $920 - and of course we'll watch the the channel lines (quite important), Bollinger Bands and moving averages. We'll also look at the monthly chart price channel once there's a real move. For now - give it a couple or few more days and see how ready it looks for a reversal. The indicators aren't terrible but I don't see them as ruling out at least a consolidation pullback.

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