Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Yen continues to prove its bullish case on course to reach new all-time highs

Don't expect the yen to provide a carry trade anytime soon! The yen continues to prove its bullish case - which it really cinched by rising above 111.49 in $XJY again (inverse to the way the "yen" (dollar-yen pair) is often quoted - new highs in $XJY will send "the yen" meaning dollar/yen lower). And the indicators are in agreement, confirming uptrending without being overbought. My notes from about a year ago on the monthly chart I made then (below) give some ideas about the price projections.

Note to Elliotticians - I don't see that years-long consolidation as a triangle - looks to me like a flat. Therefore I'm not limiting my price projections to the measured-move thrust from a triangle. But that wouldn't be a bad minimum projection; we can be thinking of the mid-$120's at least. Anyway, it's clear the monthly chart suports the move up to new highs to continue working out for many months. For me this is a swing trade approach so I'm mostly interested in continuing to hold FXY and similar ETFs as a long position, for a long time. (Certainly be sure you aren't trying to short this move!)

No comments:

Post a Comment