Deciphering some clues on whether markets are breaking or faking, for making bulls' or bears' fears

Neither bulls nor bears always get what they want, or can avoid what they fear. Did today represent a last gasp or the start of a new breakout? Thinking on this made me also recall one of Ray Merriman's comments that the markets would likely make some surprise moves that might seem like a breakout or breakdown, then turn out to be faking instead of breaking. But which is it? Meanwhile on the bigger picture, trader Joe pointed out that Martin Armstrong has issued a new newsletter 11/26/09, "The Sum of All Fears: A Great Depression" at http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The-Sum-of-All-Fears-A-Great-Depression-11-26-09.pdf. Based on the cover note you might want to download and save your own .pdf copy of it right away.... One of the points he makes is that the stock market high should be in 2012 or 2016. That should bust some bears, representing their worst fear - since many bears project lows for those time periods! While I've had a hard time projecting a final high for that time frame, that's based on my concerns about time frame and maybe I need to review (and could see it more easily for 2016 I'll admit). Overall that's compatible in my view with the idea of the Elliott Wave (EW/OEW) flat, depending in part on whether we count the 2007 high as a B or a large III and how to count the waves down to the March low. Tying into T Theory is another matter too. Would fit kinda neatly if there's a low in 2010 or 2011 and then allow five years for a final wave "V" high. Can't say I've got "the answer" yet on what path the SPX will take but it's fascinating to work out.

Do read Armstrong's newsletter if for no other reason than to see his forecast for real estate (very bearish!), and explanation of wealth shifting from non-movable assets to movable assets.

Meantime below are charts starting with daily and weekly showing the US dollar index ($USD) overlaying gold (in gold color of course) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average equities index (in blue). You can see that gold vaulted to get just beyond the $1192 level, while the dollar and Dow edged up so close to their prior extremes that they look like they want to push farther. But is that the fake-out? Or was it that major extreme last Thursday when US markets were closed and now the markets seem acting as though nothing happened? Near-term, we just work with the levels (and thanks to Andre, Tony and Terry who provide great input in their respective analyses updates!). Terry Laundry tonight agrees there isn't a breakout confirmed but takes note that the A/D edged higher, and also notes the obvious monthly cycle currently that suggests a high in mid-December. (Locate his T Theory site in the list at right, then navigate to his daily update page).

So let's let the levels tell us whether, or not, the markets haven't finished the rally yet. As close as they edged today, they didn't confirm. The shape of the SPX and Dow right now remind me of another boxy top made by oil when it topped, but given the TRIN and CMF money flow as I showed in the prior post earlier this evening - I'm just not ready to bet that the indices have quite finished the top yet. So we'll give it at least another couple of days to reveal.