Swing traders mostly sidelined as active traders ride the choppy range in equities

Most swing traders are sidelined by the choppy range-bound trade in the SPX and other equities markets right now. While banks, GS and other financials remain in the saggy category (possible 4th wave for GS not complete), leading equity indices have been saying they're not done yet! Tony Caldaro (at his OEW site, in list at right) has been pointing out the trend is still up, and doesn't change unless and until a trend change is confirmed. How true!! Recently I dud a listing of bullish and bearish factors - looking at my SPX and TRIN daily charts below, you can see 2 or 3 bullish ones still: good volumes on the past couple of up days including today; CMF (money flow) went positive recently and continued increasing today; TRIN's 10-day moving average still well above 1.20 meaning the market is technically oversold! You get the feeling that between the consolidation movement sideways, and the dive last week when the regular U.S. markets weren't open, some big players reloaded some hefty clips. But as traders we must take it as it comes.

You'll see on Tony's hourly SPX chart below (thanks Tony!) he moved the a/B designation above today. I don't think we can read that as saying "it's finally done" - just that it didn't finish previously so swing traders must remain on watch for a sign of when it will be done. Tony's comments in his update day to look for a breakout above the 1107 pivot, meaning above 1112/1113 for practical purposes. Or a breakdown under 1090.

Well I can't guarantee anything but between the TRIN, CMF, price movement and ChartsEdge weekly, I get the impression the market wants to test the bears' patience some more with higher prices. We'll also want to see if Terry Laundry's advance/decline indicator is giving the breakout he wants for a bullish T; check his site (also listed at right) for any word he may post on that tonight in his daily updates area.